Role of Early Warning Systems in Conflict Prevention in Africa

A Framework

Abstract

In the last four decades, the international peace agenda has been dominated by debates on conflict prevention. In Africa, the post-cold war era has witnessed a shift in emphasis from conflict management to conflict prevention. Essentially, the shift is necessitated by the shortcomings of the reactive nature of conflict management approaches. Irrespective of the paradigm shift towards conflict prevention, most African countries continue to witness persistent overt conflicts despite the existence of early warning systems. This article investigates why existing conflict early warning and early response systems have not managed to fully prevent conflict in the region in a timely manner. This article makes the case that the short comings of the existing early warning systems are due to a combination of factors including divergent scholarly perspectives and practical policy dilemmas. Many conflict early warning systems are reactive, not context specific, and in many cases early warning signs and indicators are ignored. This article suggests an early warning and response framework that would link warning and preventive responses. Guided by the view that each conflict has its own dynamics, nature and context, response plans must be developed as part of the early warning system. The framework proposed in this article, lays emphasis on context-specificity and critical leadership and responsibility in early warning and early response.